000 WTPZ32 KNHC 251754 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 105.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUD COULD STILL BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY IN MANZANILLO. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIRFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS