000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241200 CCA TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012 CORRECTED SPELLING OF PUNTA SAN TELMO IN WATCH/WARNING SECTION ...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN