000 WTPZ32 KNHC 240853 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012 ...BUD CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 107.5W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN