787 WTPZ31 KNHC 030555 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022 ...ORLENE CAUSING HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 106.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will be moving away from Las Islas Marias this morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Orlene is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves onshore, and the system should dissipate on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Isla Maria Madre reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) with a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias for the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico today, with tropical storm conditions beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm warning area through early today. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area early today. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday: * Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches. * Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. * Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch