000
WTPZ31 KNHC 031453
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING
VERY SOON....


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 110.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY...AND STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN