000
WTPZ31 KNHC 030254
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  VANCE MAY INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
IN A DAY OR TWO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA