000
WTPZ31 KNHC 022035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H....AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
IN A DAY OR TWO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI