000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171443 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 114.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...GUSTS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN