000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170839 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...PAUL SKIRTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 113.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM... * SANTA FE TO EL POCITO * SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM... * NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAUL IS SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA... AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART