000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * EVARISTO TO MULEGE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO * NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY. PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF 71 MPH...114 KM/H. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA