000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161206 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...PAUL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 112.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. PAUL HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN