000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160852 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...PAUL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER SOUTHWESTERN BAJA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 112.7W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI