000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160558 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 ...HURRICANE PAUL HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 113.1W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART