000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160255 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH... ...ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 113.6W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH