000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152335 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 500 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 ...PAUL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 113.8W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH