000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151752 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 ...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...NEARING CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...84 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN