000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150243 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012 ...PAUL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 115.3W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL SHOULD BE OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PAUL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEN CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG