000
WTPZ31 KNHC 142033
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...PAUL TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. 

 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON MONDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI