000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141437
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...PAUL STARTS THE NORTHWARD TURN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI