000
WTNT35 KNHC 070838
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
...EMILY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND GRADUALLY DECREASING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY
TUESDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY.
 
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
HEAVY SQUALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN