000
WTNT35 KNHC 160655
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
300 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008
 
...OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD...WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH....
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. 
 
AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE ISLANDS
OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 300 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES..90 KM...
NORTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.
 
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF OMAR WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.  ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
 
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR.  COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  IN ADDITION...OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.
 
REPEATING THE 100 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...63.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA