000
WTNT35 KNHC 142032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.
 
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO.
 
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE PROLONGED SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...68.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART