000
WTNT35 KNHC 140831
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. 
A TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...69.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH