000
WTNT34 KNHC 210604
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
 
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN.  A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. 
PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS.  DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 
911 MB...26.90 INCHES. 
 
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN