000
WTNT34 KNHC 202032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL... 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.  AT 5
PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
 
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME