000
WTNT34 KNHC 201757
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
 
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME