000
WTNT34 KNHC 192044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.  PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.  A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME