000
WTNT34 KNHC 171457
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI