000
WTNT32 KNHC 110834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY...
...WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN BERMUDA EARLIER...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST
OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED
BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA