000
WTNT32 KNHC 170832
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012
 
...RAFAEL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 60.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA 
AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE