000
WTNT31 KNHC 022044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
 
...ERIKA NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
 
AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7
WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AND ERIKA COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
 
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 61.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN