000
WTNT31 KNHC 021754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
200 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
 
...ERIKA NEAR GUADELOUPE...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC....THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM MAY BE
WEAKENING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
  
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 61.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN