000
WTNT31 KNHC 020857
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
 
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 59.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH