000
WTNT31 KNHC 142051
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
 
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6
WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215
KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N...83.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN