000
WTNT31 KNHC 312032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W.  MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN