000
WTNT31 KNHC 300231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY...
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
 
INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
TUESDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS