000
WTNT31 KNHC 290858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
 
...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST OF HAITI AS LIFE-
THREATENING RAINS CONTINUE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.  THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 245 MILES
...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF
HAITI DURING THE DAY TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NOEL INTERACTS
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...72.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN