000
WTNT31 KNHC 282043
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...
AND HOLGUIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
 
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  A
CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI TONIGHT.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...71.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB