000
WTPZ25 KNHC 211457
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO
LIBERTAD.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
PUERTO LIBERTAD.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 110.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA