000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190841
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 10NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  70SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA