000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180857
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE  80SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 103.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS