000
WTPZ25 KNHC 042049
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED WITHIN 48 HOURS
OF THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 130SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI