000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132043 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 160SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE