000
WTPZ25 KNHC 131455
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE SINCE A HURRICANE WATCH OR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 170SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 150SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE