000
WTPZ25 KNHC 130839
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0900 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO
SANTA FE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE...SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 180SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 170SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN