000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120250
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG