000
WTPZ25 KNHC 111438
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.2W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.2W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.4N 104.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS