000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110831
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0900 UTC THU SEP 11 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN