000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110240
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0300 UTC THU SEP 11 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG