000
WTPZ25 KNHC 100838
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  85NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN